Andrew La Mont

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San Mateo County

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Trends At A Glance May 2013 Previous Month Year-over Year
Median Home Price +4.6%$957,000 $915,000 +25.9%$760,000
Average Sales Price +1.9%$1,243,470 $1,220,390 +22.0%$1,018,970
No. of Homes Sold +17.3%509 434 -1.7%518
Pending Properties +0.3%579 577 -22.5%747
Foreclosures Sold -68.2%7 22 -85.4%48
Short Sales Sold -28.0%18 25 -72.7%66
Active Listings +4.2%572 549 -28.5%800
Active Foreclosures -20.0%8 10 -78.4%37
Active Short Sales -33.3%12 18 -85.7%84
Sales Price vs. List Price +0.7%106.5% 105.7% +3.8%102.5%
Average Days on Market -10.7%23 26 -42.0%40

Market MomentumEnlarge Graph

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San Mateo County: New Peak Approaching. Market Waning.

A new market peak is approaching. With the median price of single-family, re-sale homes at $957,000 in May, we are only $63,000 off the all-time high of $1,020,000 reached in October 2007.

The rise has been fast and furious, and, like the stock market, buyers tend to get a bit skittish when markets approach new highs.

Some of the hallmarks of this rapid rise in the market have been:

  1. Offer parties, where the listing agent sets a time and a place for accepting offers on a property.
  2. Multiple offers
  3. Frantic buyers.

Well, just to let you know, all three of those hallmarks are abating.

Offer parties are becoming less well attended, if anyone shows at all. In fact, listing agents are calling buying agents who showed the property to ask if they will be making an offer.

Where it was common for well-priced homes to receive ten or more offers, we are seeing five or less.

Looking for a home in an appreciating market is stressful and disappointing, with many buyers putting in more than three offers and not being able to make them “stick”. So, many buyers are deciding to “take a break”.

Oh, one more thing, interest rates are on the rise. After being down around 3% for 30-year FRM, they are now approaching 4%.

Advice to Buyers: Shake off the rejected offer blues, and get out there before interest rates go up. Your biggest impediment to home ownership is higher interest rates.

Advice to Sellers: You may actually have to negotiate, make repairs, and not expect two months of free rent back! More inventory (as in more competition)  is coming as banks are ready to release inventory.

Psst. The banks are going to dump their inventory on the market because the institutional investors who have been sopping up the bank-owned properties are pulling out of the market.

See Businessweek’s interview with Bruce Rose, hedge fund manager and one of the first to put money into buying bank-owned property: go to http://tinyurl.com/lcp982j.

Also, higher interest rates will diminish the price you can get for you home.

Advice to Homeowners: If you haven’t refi’d, get crackin! Interest rates are increasing!

Prices & SalesEnlarge Graph

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Sales BreakdownEnlarge Graph

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Days of InventoryEnlarge Graph

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Sales To DateEnlarge Graph

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Sale Price RatioEnlarge Graph

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